2027 Subsidy Cliff by State: What $1 Over the Line Costs
The 400% subsidy cliff is back for 2027. I used KFF's 2027 benchmark premiums and the IRS's 2027 rules to work out what one extra dollar of income costs a household in every state. The data is free to use with a link to this page.
Key findings
- Nationally, a 60-year-old couple earning $1 more than $86,560 in 2027 pays about $26,983 more a year for the benchmark silver plan than a couple right at the line.
- The cliff is steepest in Alaska ($56,595), Wyoming ($51,804), West Virginia ($51,550) for that couple.
- In Florida, the same $1 costs a 60-year-old couple $28,767 a year and a single 60-year-old $12,282.
- The average benchmark premium for a 40-year-old rose 12%, from $625 to $703 a month.
- Older buyers are hit hardest. In Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota and New Hampshire, a single 40-year-old just over the line pays no more than at the line, because the benchmark plan already costs less than the cap. A single 60-year-old still loses thousands in every state.
The cliff in every state
Extra yearly premium for earning $1 over the 2027 line ($63,840 single, $86,560 couple), benchmark silver plan.
| State | 2027 benchmark, age 40 /mo | Change vs 2026 | Single, 40 | Single, 60 | Couple, both 60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $712 | +10% | $2,020 | $11,620 | $27,442 |
| Alaska | $1,284 | +24% | $8,884 | $26,196 | $56,595 |
| Arizona | $609 | +14% | $784 | $8,995 | $22,193 |
| Arkansas | $757 | -2% | $2,560 | $12,767 | $29,736 |
| California | $633 | +11% | $1,072 | $9,607 | $23,416 |
| Colorado | $615 | +10% | $856 | $9,148 | $22,498 |
| Connecticut | $1,005 | +16% | $5,536 | $19,087 | $42,376 |
| Delaware | $876 | +27% | $3,988 | $15,799 | $35,801 |
| District of Columbia | $678 | +11% | $1,612 | $10,753 | $25,709 |
| Florida | $738 | +8% | $2,332 | $12,282 | $28,767 |
| Georgia | $733 | +19% | $2,272 | $12,155 | $28,512 |
| Hawaii | $592 | +9% | $580 | $8,562 | $21,326 |
| Idaho | $553 | +13% | $112 | $7,568 | $19,338 |
| Illinois | $707 | +9% | $1,960 | $11,492 | $27,187 |
| Indiana | $537 | +13% | $0 | $7,160 | $18,523 |
| Iowa | $528 | +5% | $0 | $6,931 | $18,064 |
| Kansas | $748 | +12% | $2,452 | $12,537 | $29,277 |
| Kentucky | $667 | +13% | $1,480 | $10,473 | $25,149 |
| Louisiana | $730 | +13% | $2,236 | $12,079 | $28,360 |
| Maine | $804 | +13% | $3,124 | $13,964 | $32,131 |
| Maryland | $491 | +19% | $0 | $5,988 | $16,178 |
| Massachusetts | $551 | +12% | $88 | $7,517 | $19,236 |
| Michigan | $595 | +14% | $616 | $8,638 | $21,479 |
| Minnesota | $525 | +17% | $0 | $6,854 | $17,911 |
| Mississippi | $814 | +23% | $3,244 | $14,219 | $32,641 |
| Missouri | $675 | +12% | $1,576 | $10,677 | $25,556 |
| Montana | $889 | +28% | $4,144 | $16,130 | $36,463 |
| Nebraska | $780 | +10% | $2,836 | $13,353 | $30,908 |
| Nevada | $565 | +14% | $256 | $7,874 | $19,950 |
| New Hampshire | $486 | +21% | $0 | $5,861 | $15,924 |
| New Jersey | $665 | +22% | $1,456 | $10,422 | $25,047 |
| New Mexico | $725 | +16% | $2,176 | $11,951 | $28,105 |
| New York | $1,041 | +27% | $5,968 | $5,968 | $16,138 |
| North Carolina | $660 | +3% | $1,396 | $10,295 | $24,792 |
| North Dakota | $610 | +7% | $796 | $9,021 | $22,244 |
| Ohio | $603 | +18% | $712 | $8,842 | $21,887 |
| Oklahoma | $686 | +14% | $1,708 | $10,957 | $26,117 |
| Oregon | $656 | +21% | $1,348 | $10,193 | $24,588 |
| Pennsylvania | $648 | +13% | $1,252 | $9,989 | $24,180 |
| Rhode Island | $629 | +24% | $1,024 | $9,505 | $23,212 |
| South Carolina | $702 | +24% | $1,900 | $11,365 | $26,932 |
| South Dakota | $704 | +7% | $1,924 | $11,416 | $27,034 |
| Tennessee | $796 | +12% | $3,028 | $13,760 | $31,723 |
| Texas | $737 | +11% | $2,320 | $12,257 | $28,716 |
| Utah | $716 | +12% | $2,068 | $11,722 | $27,646 |
| Vermont | $1,313 | +1% | $9,232 | $9,232 | $22,666 |
| Virginia | $549 | +21% | $64 | $7,466 | $19,135 |
| Washington | $768 | +25% | $2,692 | $13,047 | $30,296 |
| West Virginia | $1,185 | +10% | $7,696 | $23,674 | $51,550 |
| Wisconsin | $720 | +18% | $2,116 | $11,824 | $27,850 |
| Wyoming | $1,190 | +9% | $7,756 | $23,801 | $51,804 |
| U.S. average | $703 | +12% | $1,912 | $11,391 | $26,983 |
How I calculated it
For 2027 coverage the enhanced premium tax credits are gone, so the credit stops at 400% of the federal poverty line: $63,840 for one person and $86,560 for two (HHS 2026 poverty guidelines, 48 contiguous states and DC).
Right at the line, IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26 caps what a household pays for the benchmark (second-lowest-cost silver) plan at 10.22% of income. One dollar over, there is no credit and the household pays the full premium.
The cliff cost in the table is the full yearly benchmark premium minus that 10.22% cap. When the benchmark already costs less than the cap, the cliff is $0.
Benchmark premiums are KFF's 2027 state averages for a 40-year-old (weighted by county plan selections). Age-60 figures use the CMS federal default age curve (60 costs 2.714 / 1.278 = 2.12 times age 40). New York and Vermont don't rate by age, so age doesn't change the premium there. A few states use their own age curves, so their age-60 figures are close estimates.
Premiums vary by county and plan, and these are state averages for illustration. Real costs depend on where you live, your exact income and the plan you pick.
Sources
- KFF, Marketplace Average Monthly Benchmark Premiums (2026 and 2027)
- IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26 (2027 applicable percentage table)
- HHS poverty guidelines (2026 guidelines, used for 2027 coverage)
General information, not tax advice — confirm with your CPA based on your specific entity structure.
For reporters
Use any number here with a link to this page. Suggested credit: "FC Insurance Solutions analysis of KFF and IRS data."
Frank Caballero is a licensed health insurance broker in Tampa, Florida, licensed in 31 states, and available for interviews in English and Spanish.
If you're near the line
Check where your household lands with the 2027 subsidy cliff calculator. If you're over the line and healthy, a private plan priced on your age, location and health answers instead of your income may cost less, and it can start the first of any month if approved. Approval isn't certain and benefits vary by plan, so I show both options side by side.
Compare my options